AGE-GROUP SWIMMER PERFORMANCES DO NOT PREDICT EVENTUAL ADULT PERFORMANCES

Costa, M. J., Marinho, D. A., Reis, V. M., Silva, A. J., Bragada, J. A., & Barbosa, T.M. (2010).. Stability and prediction of 100-m breaststroke performance during elite swimmers' careers A paper presented at the XIth International Symposium for Biomechanics and Medicine in Swimming, Oslo, June 1619, 2010.

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This study analyzed the 100-m breaststroke performance stability throughout elite male swimmers' careers, from children to adult age. Ss (N = 35) provided 905 race times over seven consecutive seasons between 12 and 18 years of age. Performance progression was analyzed based on two approaches: 1) mean stability, and 2) normative stability.

Performances improved significantly from year to year except for the sixth and seventh (16-17 years) season. Stability and prediction of swimmers' adult performances based on overall age-group career is low.

Implication. Male breaststroke swimmers' age-group performances are neither accurate nor reliable for predicting adult performances.

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