Stager, J. M., Skube, J., Tanner, D. A., Winston, W., & Morris, H. H. (2001). Predicting elite swim performance at the USA 2000 Olympic Swim Trials. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 33(5), Supplement abstract 898.

A statistical analysis of performances at the USA Olympic swimming trials from 1968 through to 1996 was used to predict performances at the 2000 Olympic trials. A similar analysis was performed for the 2000 Olympic Games.

It was found that 2 of 13 women's events at the 2000 trials did not coincide with predictions. The 200-m backstroke was slower and the 100-m breaststroke faster than predicted. No men's events differed from predictions. At the Olympic Games, 7 of 26 events were faster than predicted, 5 of which were women's.

It was concluded that current swimming developments are progressing according to regular trends and expectations. There is a suggestion that women's events might be influenced by factors that are not appropriate for males.

Implication. There do not appear to be factors producing dramatic improvements in international swimming.

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